Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
